ATAR is an acronym for awareness, trial, availability, and repeat. It is a structured technique with the purpose of assessing new products or services with regard to their potential adoption rate or sales numbers. Each of the letters in ATAR represent a stage of familiarity with a product or service from which the actual chance of a random person becoming a regular customer can be calculated. For instance, a certain percentage of the population must become aware of an offering prior to its initial use. Following this trial, a percentage of this group with access to the offering will make regular purchases. By estimating the percentages at each of these stages, potential market size can be predicted.
Step 1: Determine the size of a population of potential purchasers. Calculate the percentage that become aware of the offering.
Step 2: Calculate the percentage of aware potential purchasers that decide to try the offering.
Step 3: Calculate the percentage of those who have made an initial purchase and who also have ongoing access to the offering.
Step 4: Calculate the percentage of those in the previous step with a favourable attitude towards the offering who are likely to make repeat purchases.